Who Will Win the 2019 NBA MVP? Latest Odds and Predictions

As I sit here analyzing the 2019 NBA MVP race, I can't help but draw parallels to that incredible volleyball match between Japanese wards and Cool Smashers I witnessed last season. Remember when the Japanese team had that commanding eight-point lead at 16-8 in the first frame? That's exactly how Giannis Antetokounmpo started this NBA season - absolutely dominant, looking like he might run away with the award. But just like the Cool Smashers rallied to force that 21-21 deadlock, James Harden has been mounting one of the most spectacular comebacks in recent MVP history. The race has become as intense as that volleyball match's final moments, where Reira Miyazaki's quick drop ultimately secured the set for Kobe Shinwa despite the fierce comeback attempt.

Looking at the current odds, Giannis remains the slight favorite at -150, but Harden has closed the gap to +120 after his historic scoring run. Personally, I've been tracking MVP odds for over a decade, and I've never seen such volatility this late in the season. The Greek Freak's numbers are simply staggering - he's averaging 27.7 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists while leading the Bucks to what could be the league's best record. His defensive impact is something we haven't seen from an MVP candidate since Kevin Garnett's prime. I've had the privilege of watching Giannis develop since his rookie year, and his transformation has been nothing short of remarkable. The way he's carried Milwaukee this season reminds me of how LeBron used to single-handedly elevate his teams during his Cleveland days.

However, James Harden is putting together what might be the greatest offensive season in modern NBA history. He's scoring at a clip we haven't witnessed since Jordan's heyday, currently averaging 36.1 points per game. I've spoken with several former players and coaches who all agree they've never seen anything quite like Harden's isolation mastery. The Rockets were left for dead when they fell to 11-14 in December, but Harden has dragged them back to relevance almost single-handedly. His 32 consecutive 30-point games created a narrative momentum that's hard to ignore. From my perspective, what Harden is doing is statistically more impressive, but team success typically weighs heavily with voters.

The advanced metrics tell a fascinating story. Giannis leads the league in Player Efficiency Rating at 30.9 while Harden sits at 30.3. When I dug deeper into the numbers, Giannis has the edge in defensive metrics, ranking in the 96th percentile for defensive win shares. But Harden's offensive burden is unprecedented - he accounts for nearly 47.8% of Houston's total points when you combine his scoring and assists. I remember having a conversation with a veteran scout who told me, "We may never see another player carry this much offensive responsibility while maintaining this level of efficiency." The voting is going to come down to what individual voters value more - Giannis' two-way dominance on the best team or Harden's historic offensive carry job.

Paul George has emerged as the dark horse candidate at +1200 odds, though honestly, I think his chances are slimmer than the odds suggest. His two-way play has been spectacular, and he's posting career highs across the board with 28.2 points per game. But the Thunder's recent slide has likely knocked him out of serious contention. I've noticed that MVP voters tend to have recency bias, and OKC's 4-6 record in their last 10 games hasn't helped George's case. Still, finishing third in voting would represent a remarkable achievement for a player many had written off after his leg injury several years ago.

What many casual fans don't realize is how much narrative influences MVP voting. Having covered this beat for years, I've seen how storylines can sway voters as much as statistics. Giannis represents the international growth of the game and small-market success, while Harden embodies offensive innovation and individual brilliance. The Greek's story is about systematic team building and development, whereas Harden's is about historic individual achievement against adversity. Personally, I'm leaning slightly toward Giannis because I value two-way impact, but I wouldn't be shocked if Harden wins given his unprecedented scoring numbers.

The voting deadline of April 10th is approaching fast, and every game matters down the stretch. If Milwaukee finishes with 65 wins and the best record, that might seal it for Giannis. But if Harden can somehow maintain his scoring average while lifting Houston to a top-three seed in the brutal Western Conference, he could become just the third player in NBA history to win back-to-back MVP awards. Having studied voting patterns for years, I've noticed that voters love redemption stories, and Harden's ability to overcome Houston's early-season struggles plays right into that narrative. Meanwhile, Giannis represents the fresh face the league has been craving.

Ultimately, I believe Giannis will edge out Harden in one of the closest votes in recent memory. The combination of team success, defensive impact, and his compelling personal story will resonate just enough with voters. But make no mistake - this has been one of the most fascinating MVP races I've covered in my career, reminiscent of that thrilling volleyball match where momentum swung dramatically before ultimately being decided by a single crucial play. Both candidates are deserving, but only one can have their Reira Miyazaki moment when the winner is announced in June.